What’s The Direction Of Travel For Bitcoin In 2026?

Bitcoin Volatility

Volatility is always the precursor to major moves in the bitcoin price.

Volatility has collapsed recently and is now at levels historically associated with a significant price move.

What is not clear is the direction of that move.

However, the next move is likely to catch many investors offside.

Bitcoin is in a consolidation period, and the price remains below every major structural level.

The short-term holder realised price is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held by those who acquired bitcoin in the past 5 to 6 months. This metric is key from an on-chain analysis perspective.

The short-term holder is most sensitive to price fluctuations.

If the price is above their realised price, they are in profit and more likely to hold. If the price is below, the pressure to sell increases.

The short-term holder price is currently $99k.

That suggests bitcoin will remain in bearish territory until it breaks above and convincingly confirms above this level.

Technical analysis shows that since late November 2025, bitcoin has formed a bear flag. The most recent upside momentum last week was rejected at the predicted resistance level of $94k, which remains a key area for sellers.

Bitcoin Bulls

The majority of investors on social media are bullish on the bitcoin price, as with stocks. Many believe the 4-year cycle is dead and that it’s now upward only.

If the price breaks above $99k and confirms, it could extend the uptrend if supported by a positive macro environment of liquidity and institutional flows.

It would signal that bitcoin has evolved and is more likely to be driven by liquidity, institutional flows, and currency debasement.

That would effectively end the 4-year cycle narrative that some investors are emotionally anchored to.

Downside Risk

However, the downside risk from current levels should not be underestimated. If the downward price move last week is a continuation of a broader bearish trend (and if history rhymes), then bitcoin could retest $75k over the next couple of months and push it into a crypto winter.

Price could bottom and then consolidate in the $80k to $95k range for much of 2026.

It’s important not to become emotionally attached to a single outcome. Whatever the outcome is, it will bring opportunity.