Is This The Start Of Bitcoin Uptober?

Bitcoin Looking For Direction

Bitcoin is sitting at $124k.

Over the past few posts, we have highlighted the significant support and resistance levels that are likely to inform the next BTC price trend and direction.

In our 29 July post “Bitcoin Doesn’t Need A Parabolic Move”, we noted:

“If Bitcoin can maintain its current level and withstand any sell pressure, then the weight of probability suggests a price of $125k in this quarter.

That the next 60 days will likely determine the direction of the bitcoin price.”

Although we may have been slightly off with the timing, the recent price movement, on balance, supports the on-chain analysis.

On average, Bitcoin tends to trend over a ten-week period before that trend breaks.

Over the last ten weeks, which began with the previous all-time high, the period of correction and consolidation has led some investors to question whether BTC has topped.

On 27 September, BTC was the most oversold since the tariff tantrums and the August correction to $107k.

Demand Shift

Last week, however, likely signalled a shift.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their second-largest week of inflows ($3.25 billion) since their launch, with purchases of bitcoin exceeding 30,000.

BlackRock had inflows of $800 million on Friday alone.

At the end of last week, Standard Chartered said that bitcoin could hit $135k this week.

JP Morgan also entered the fray, stating that, based on the current gold run, BTC could reach $165k by year-end.

From a technical analysis perspective, BTC needs to break and confirm above $125k to confirm momentum is to the upside.

So, will our price prediction of $125k be the top?

During periods when BTC is reaching all-time highs, it’s crucial to keep emotions in check by considering probabilities. 

At the $125k level, and based on average long-term holder unrealised profits metrics, the balance of probability is weighted toward a pullback or consolidation.

The direction of the BTC price at the $125k level will be determined by the balance between demand and continued selling by long-term holders.

Long-term holders are less prone to making emotional decisions. They act on data and long-term fundamentals, rarely chasing pumps or panicking on dips.

They take profits strategically and usually sell into strength at or near local tops.

Expect BTC to reach $125k and then likely pull back, retesting the recent all-time high at $119k as support. If that holds, it could serve as a catalyst for a new all-time high surpassing the $125k level.